Probability in Pipedrive represents the likelihood of a deal being WON by its expected close date. Pipedrive automatically calculates the deal’s value based on the provided probability, making sales volume predictions easier. There are two forms of probability within Pipedrive: stage probability and deal probability.
Stage Probability
By default, stage probability is set to 100% for each stage unless adjusted.
Stage probability indicates the likelihood of closing a deal based on the pipeline stage it’s in. To adjust the probability for each stage:
- Go to the pipeline view.
- Click on the pencil icon next to the pipeline dropdown, or hover over a pipeline and click the pencil icon there.
You need visibility of a pipeline to configure stage probability. Obsolete and discontinued currencies don’t have conversion rates and are not counted towards stage probabilities.
Deal Probability
Deal probability is always prioritised over stage probability.
Deal probability represents the likelihood of a deal being marked as WON. You can set a deal’s probability from the summary section of its detail view.
Learn how to enable and configure deal probability for your pipeline stages in this article.
Total and Weighted Value
In a weighted sales pipeline, opportunities with a higher likelihood of being WON are given more weight in sales forecasting.
The total value displayed in your stage is the total value of deals in that stage since the probability is set at 100% by default. If you set a different probability for that stage, your weighted total value takes the probability of the deals being won into account.
For example, if the “Lead In” stage’s total value is $4,245.74 and the probability is 50%, the weighted value for deals in that stage is $2,122.87.
At the top of your pipeline, you can see the total value of all deals in your pipeline, as well as the total weighted value, which considers the probability set for each stage.
A deal-specific probability will override a stage’s probability but will still count toward that stage’s weighted value. The deal’s probability impacts the overall probability for that stage because it’s combined with the stage probability.
Weighted Value Formulas
Here’s a list of formulas used to calculate probabilities in Pipedrive:
| Condition | Formula |
|---|---|
| When deal probability is set | [Total value] x [deal probability/ 100] = Weighted value |
| When deal probability is not set, but stage probability is set | [Total value] x [stage probability/ 100] = Weighted value |
| When both deal and stage probabilities are set | [Total value] x [deal probability/ 100] = Weighted value |
| When neither is set | Deal value = Weighted value |
By understanding and utilising these probabilities, you can enhance your sales forecasting and prioritise your sales efforts more effectively.
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